IDHAR UDHAR KI BAAT 125 – GRANDMOTHER’S STRATEGIC WISDOM Brig PS Gothra (Retd)

    For the last two weeks I have been remembering my grandmother a lot. On starlit summer nights she would lie on a charpoi on the roof and narrate stories before we slept. One story I remember very clearly. It was about a monkey and a bear who entered a sugarcane field to enjoy a free feast. Suddenly the farmers arrived with sticks. The monkey jumped to the nearest tree and watched the drama from above. The bear, poor fellow, had no such option. His hips turned red with the beating.

    The story ended with the famous Punjabi line: “Khan peen nu bandri, dande khan nu richh.”(The monkey enjoys the food, the bear receives the beating.)

    Watching the current war in West Asia, I cannot help remembering that story.

    Some countries resemble the richh (bear). Their ports closed, refineries threatened, desalination plants under danger, food supply uncertain because imports stop, expatriates leaving in panic and missiles and drones raining over airports and infrastructure.

   And somewhere two bandris (monkeys) sit comfortably. One protected under layers of air defence systems. The other watching the battlefield calmly through satellites and telescopes from far away.

   Over these two weeks I have tried to gather some lessons from this unfolding conflict. They are not grand theories. Just simple observations that war seems to be teaching again and again.

   First lesson: never underestimate deception. If the enemy knows exactly where your missiles are, the war is half lost. One must deploy large numbers of decoy missile launchers so that the enemy wastes his expensive missiles destroying empty targets.

   Second lesson: cheap weapons defeat expensive weapons. Wars are not won by shiny platforms. They are won by numbers. Cheap drones, low-cost missiles, and systems like Akashteer can overwhelm the enemy simply by quantity.

   The mathematics of modern war is simple. If your missile costs one crore and the enemy missile costs ten crore, you are already winning.

   Third lesson: protect human life. Missile launchers and drone pads should increasingly be unmanned and located deep underground. If the enemy destroys the launcher, you lose equipment but not soldiers. Machines can be replaced. Human lives cannot.

   Fourth lesson: the era of power projection may be fading. For decades naval strategists loved large aircraft carriers and big ships to project power. But one ship sunk on live television can sink the morale of an entire nation. Big platforms are visible. Visible platforms are targetable. Smaller, dispersed and disposable systems survive better.

   Fifth lesson: big platforms cannot hide. A swarm of small drones can hide in the sky. A convoy of small missile trucks can hide in forests. But an aircraft carrier or a massive base cannot disappear. Modern warfare prefers the invisible mosquito over the visible elephant.

   Sixth lesson: belief systems matter in long wars. Religion, ideology and national identity play a huge role in sustaining morale. Armies fight with weapons, but nations fight with belief. When belief is strong, wars can become long and stubborn.

  Seventh lesson: have an exit plan before firing the first bullet. Wars begin with enthusiasm but end with negotiations. If a nation enters war without knowing how it will exit, it risks becoming the bear in grandmother’s story.

   Eighth lesson: radars must be deceived. Modern air defence systems depend on radar networks. Electronic deception, false signatures, and radar confusion can turn the enemy’s sophisticated systems blind at the crucial moment.

   Ninth lesson: leadership is the real target. Kautilya wrote centuries ago that the security of the head of state is paramount. Secret agents, assassins, poison, spies and deception were all methods described in the Arthashastra. Modern warfare has only added drones and missiles to the list. Modiji please reduce your vulnerability by avoiding travel abroad. Afterall there are number of people jealous of our country.  A nation may survive the loss of equipment and soldiers. But if leadership is shaken, morale collapses.

   Tenth lesson: As Col Rajiv Aggarwal (Retd) says, never outsource the security of your nation. Alliances help. But survival ultimately depends on one’s own capability. A country that relies entirely on others for its security is already vulnerable. Chose your friends wisely.

   Eleventh lesson: keep the cost of weapons low. Wars drain economies. The side that produces large numbers of affordable weapons often outlasts the side relying on expensive technological marvels.

   Finally, an old principle from espionage. If you discover enemy spies in your system, sometimes the smartest move is not to arrest them immediately. Feed them carefully crafted information. Let them carry deception back to their masters. A spy can become the most useful courier of misinformation.

   When I look at the current conflict, grandmother’s story suddenly appears like strategic wisdom.

Jai Hind.

Note:- 

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2. Other blogs of the author can be read on 

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